The new GM

Joe Kishore
wsws.org
11 July 2009

The “new” General Motors exited bankruptcy court on Friday. With the help of the courts, and under the direction of the Obama administration, the company has shed nearly $130 billion in liabilities and created the framework for a vast increase in the exploitation of its workers.

The speed of the bankruptcy proceedings is remarkable. GM passed through the entire process is less than six weeks. One analyst called it “unprecedented, unbelievable, breathtaking.”

Bankruptcy court Judge Robert Gerber brushed aside a series of objections from retirees who will see their health care eliminated, along with asbestos and accident victims and other unsecured creditors. With the potentially profitable assets sold to the new GM, these obligations, along with a number of unwanted brands, will languish in bankruptcy court as part of the “old” GM.

The whole process was a travesty of legality and due process, demonstrating that when Wall Street wants something done, every institution of the American state snaps into line. The bankruptcy courts are supposedly a mechanism for mediating the different claims of various “stakeholders.” In the event, the court served as a rubber stamp for decisions that had already been made. The wealthy investors and banks will recover 100 percent of their investments in GM debt, while workers and other claimants will end up with nothing.

The new GM is born out of a process of social devastation. The company will shed 27,000 more jobs in the US, bringing its total US workforce to 64,000. Thirty years ago the company employed over 618,000 in the US. At the beginning of last year, it employed 110,000.

An additional 14 plants will be closed, along with some 2,000 dealerships. GM is also shutting plants in Canada, bringing the total workforce there to 7,000, down from 20,000 in 2005.

The “new” company emerges from the rubble of closed factories and dealerships and the impoverishment of working class communities that depended on auto employment to fund schools, hospitals and other basic services, as well as the blighted lives of hundreds of thousands of workers and retirees.

As part of a deal negotiated with the United Auto Workers, workers who retain their jobs will have their wages frozen. A no-strike pledge through 2015 agreed by the UAW will facilitate further job, wage and benefit cuts, without the inconvenience of a contract vote. The company aims to replace all older workers with new-hires making $14 an hour.

In an indication of things to come, CEO Fritz Henderson declared Friday that he would employ the “intensity, decisiveness and speed” of the bankruptcy process and transfer it “to the day-to-day operations of the new company.”

UAW retirees, who have already seen their dental and optical benefits eliminated, will face sharp cuts in health care, enforced by the UAW. The UAW-run health care trust—the Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association (VEBA)—will own 17.5 percent of the new GM. Its assets will be insufficient to cover benefits owed to UAW retirees, but the UAW executives hope to grow rich from the 17.5 percent of stock in the new company they will control.

More than 50,000 retirees who are members of the International Union of Electrical Workers and other non-UAW organizations face the immediate elimination of their health care, as they are not covered by the VEBA.

Vast swaths of the country will be affected. Half the plant shutdowns will take place in the state of Michigan, which already has the country’s highest unemployment rate at over 14 percent. Ohio (with a 10.8 percent jobless rate) will see plants close in Columbus, Parma, and Mansfield. Other communities facing plant closures include Spring Hill, Tennessee; Fredericksburg, Virginia; Jacksonville, Florida; Wilmington Delaware; Indianapolis, Indiana; and Massena, New York.

The downsizing of GM—along with Chrysler, which exited bankruptcy last month—will ripple throughout the auto parts industry and other industries, producing a wave of bankruptcies, plant closures, layoffs and wage cuts.

Smaller towns and cities will be devastated by the closure of 1,900 dealerships, which will mean the elimination of about 100,000 jobs, including dependent businesses.

The restructuring of General Motors and Chrysler is the direct outcome of the policy of the Obama administration, the tool of the most powerful sections of the financial elite. The government conditioned loans to the automaker on securing this result, making explicit its demands for massive concessions from auto workers. Everything has been tailored to the interests of Wall Street, which was determined to transform the former auto giants into much smaller, but highly profitable, enterprises.

The government will now own 60 percent of GM, but the administration has repeatedly made clear that it has no intention of playing any role in the day-to-day management of the company. This will be left to Henderson and the new chairman, Edward Whitacre, former CEO of AT&T, who was handpicked by the Obama administration’s auto task force. The Wall Street Journal quoted Karl Rove, former advisor to George W. Bush, calling Whitacre “very tough”—i.e., very dedicated to the interests of Wall Street.

The administration has said it hopes to quickly sell off its shares to private investors, who are set to make a killing.

The UAW played the critical role in carrying through the plans of Wall Street and the Obama administration. Prior to both the Chrysler and the GM bankruptcies, the UAW agreed to historic concessions, which it pushed through by arguing that the only alternative was the complete liquidation of the companies.

A further illustration of the UAW’s integration into corporate management is its choice for its allotted slot on the new GM board of directors. The UAW selected Stephen Girsky, a former Wall Street analyst for Morgan Stanley and a former advisor to GM’s previous CEO, Rick Wagoner. Girsky will advocate the most ruthless attacks on UAW members in order to boost the company’s stock price and the cut that goes to the UAW executives.

The bankruptcy of General Motors, once the pinnacle of American manufacturing, is a stunning expression of the protracted and precipitous decline of American capitalism. The economic crisis that has overcome world capitalism is rooted in the decay of American capitalism. But the crisis precipitated by the money-mad speculation and fraud of the US financial elite has only increased its domination over the political system and every other official institution in the country.

The banks, utilizing the services of the Obama administration, are exploiting the crisis of their own making to plunder the national treasury and carry through a further dismantling of unprofitable industries, in order to divert even greater resources to the enrichment of the American financial aristocracy.

At the heart of this process is an assault on the living standards of the working class without historical precedent.

To oppose this attack, workers require a new strategy. They must break with the UAW and form independent rank-and-file committees to oppose the united front of the Obama administration, Wall Street, the auto bosses and the UAW, and fight to defend their jobs and living standards.

These committees should work for the unity of all sections of auto workers and the entire working class and prepare actions to demand the reopening of the plants, the restoration of wages and benefits and the ripping up of sellout contracts and government diktats. Plant occupations, strikes and mass demonstrations should be called in cities affected by the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies and the shutdown of parts plants and dealerships.

What is above all necessary is a political response based on a socialist perspective. There can be no resolution to the crisis in auto that defends the basic interests of the working class outside a complete transformation of social relations in the United States and around the world.

The financial dictatorship of the banks must be broken, through their nationalization and transformation into public utilities under the democratic control of the working population. The auto companies themselves must be turned into public entities, run under the democratic control of the working class. Only on this basis can the economy be developed to meet the needs of the people, rather than private profit.

To carry out this program, workers need their own political party. The Socialist Equality Party urges all auto workers throughout the US and internationally to contact the SEP. We make a special appeal to workers in the Midwest to attend a special conference on July 25 to discuss a new political perspective for the working class.

U.S. loses equivalent of every job created in decade

Alia McMullen
Financial Post
July 02, 2009

An unemployed man who lives in a camper van on Venice Beach in Los Angeles on June 19, 2009. The U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 9.5% after more than 400,000 jobs were lost during the month

The U.S. economy has lost the equivalent of every job created in the past nine years.

All job growth since the final year of the dot-com bubble, its recovery from the bust, and the ensuing six years of consumer-driven boom is now gone, leading some economists to fear an outright decline in wages will be next. Others believe the United States is on track for a painful "jobless recovery."

"This is the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all jobs growth from the previous business cycle, a testament both to the enormity of the current crisis and to the extreme weakness of jobs growth over the business cycle from 2000 to 2007," said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at Washington-based think tank The Economic Policy Institute. "It is apparent that, despite the substantial positive impact of the February recovery package, the economy's dramatic deterioration from November to March was even greater than anticipated."

Non-farm employment fell for the 18th consecutive month in June, dropping by a worse-than-expected 467,000, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Thursday. The decline marked the longest run of job destruction in the post World War II period.

Since the recession began in December 2007, the jobs market has shrunk by 6.5 million positions, pushing the unemployment rate up 4.6 percentage points to 9.5% -- the highest rate since 1981. Nine million part-time workers are in want of full-time jobs, and a record 29% of unemployed have been jobless for more than six months.

Derek Holt, vice-president economics at Scotia Capital said the U.S. unemployment rate would likely eclipse the 10.8% record set during the early 1980s recession.

"This has become, without question, the worst ever post-war pace of job market downsizing in the U.S. economy," Mr. Holt said.

He said unemployment would weigh on an economic recovery by restraining consumer spending. It would also cause further concerns about credit quality and retail bank revenue growth.

A homeless in Los Angels

The employment market's problems do not end at job losses. Earnings are under pressure. Average hourly earnings rose an annualized 0.7% in the past three months -- the smallest gain since records began in 1964. The annual change in hourly earnings slipped to a rise of 2.7% from 3% the previous month.

"Wages will soon be falling outright, a classic deflation signal," said Ian Shepherdson, the chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Compounding problems, average hours worked fell further in June to be down 0.8% to a cyclical low of 33 hours a week. The average workweek has shrunk 8.2% since the start of the recession, placing added pressure on household cash flows. It also means employers will be slow to hire because there is ample room to increase work hours.

Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the conditions increasingly pointed to what is known as a "jobless recovery," where economic growth returns without a corresponding rise in employment.

He said the decline in work hours could weigh on gross domestic product in the second and third quarters, and could cause GDP to come in worse than predicted. BMO has forecast the U.S. economy to contract by an annualized 2.9% in the second quarter and remain flat in the third quarter.

The dispirited outlook for the United States will have a direct impact on Canadian jobs by keeping business conditions weak. Dale Orr of Dale Orr Economic Insight said Canada's unemployment rate would likely peak near 10% in early 2010, up from 8.4% now. "I do not expect solid reductions in the unemployment rate until 2012," he said.

There was one positive in the U.S. employment report: the pace of job losses in June remained lower than the massive declines of winter, when a record 741,000 jobs were lost in January alone. Even so, it was the first increase in the number of job losses in five months. A large part of the decline in June was due to a 49,000 drop in government employment, mostly due to layoffs of temporary workers hired to prepare the 2010 Census.

But Wednesday's rise in the purchasing managers index, which reflected expansion for a second consecutive month, suggested better employment conditions ahead.

"Historically, firms will wait for production to expand for a few months before they start adding to payrolls," said Stéfane Marion, the chief economist at National Bank Financial. "This development suggests a much better tone to labour markets by this fall."

從飢餓中大撈一筆

—— 貿易自由化的騙局與糧食危機
兩岸犇報編輯部編譯
台灣《兩岸犇報》
2009 5月號
5月4日

倒行逆施的糧食體系
全球糧價上漲的風暴已經席捲了平民百姓、政府和媒體。小麥的價格在2007年的基礎上增長了130%；僅在去年(2008年)第一季亞洲的糧價就翻了一倍；由於食用油、水果、蔬菜、乳製品和肉類等的價格連續攀升，使得消耗量反而有所下降。從海地到喀麥隆再到孟加拉，已經不斷出現了示威以抗議無力承受的物價。由於畏懼出現政治騷動，世界各國領導人呼籲更多的糧食援助，並投入更多的資金和技術以促進農業生產。當糧食出口國閉關自守以確保國內市場的同時，其他國家卻被迫到處搶購。是價格炒作嗎？不是；是糧食短缺嗎？也不盡然。事實上，我們正處於一種結構崩塌的狀態，這是30年來的新自由全球化所導致的結果。

2007年全球農民所生產的糧食高達到23億噸，創了歷史的新高點，比前年足足增長了4%。自1961年以來，雖然世界人口增加了1倍，但糧食產量卻也增加了3 倍。沒錯，糧食存量確實降到30年來的最低水位，但是生產的糧食卻足夠養活所有的人。問題在於，糧食不能分配到需要的人的手裏。人類所直接消費掉的糧食未達到世界糧食產量的一半，大部分的穀物被用來喂養牲口和製造生質能源。事實上，通過這些冷冰冰的數字後面，你會發現我們的糧食體系根本上就有問題︰我們把那些用來滋養人類和維持生計的糧食變成了投機炒作和討價還價的商品。現在，個在邏輯上倒行逆施的制度已經到了頭，我們所面對的是一個把投資者的利潤看得比人民的糧食需求還重要的體制。

饑餓降臨，人們絕望
那些真正掌控世界糧食體系並有責任避免危機出現的決策者，一再重彈一些老掉牙的藉口來解釋當前的糧食危機：如果不是把原因推給乾旱或其他影響糧食收成的氣候因素，就是把責任怪罪到中國大陸和印度人民吃得比過去更多更好而不斷提高糧食需求，又或者歸罪於農地被大量用來生產生質能源等等。當然這些都是問題，但它們絕非是造成當前糧食危機最主要的因素。這些糧食決策者所極力掩蓋的事實是，導致今天的糧食危機的根本性因素其實是自上個世紀50年代以來大力推行的“綠色革命”，以及自70年代以來世界銀行(WB)及世界貨幣基金組織 (IMF)在貧窮國家實行的自由貿易(FAT)和結構調整政策(SAP)雙重作用的結果。隨著90年代世界貿易組織(WTO)的建立，及近來雙邊自由貿易與投資協定（ Bilateral free trade and investment agreements）的出現，貧窮國家被迫向跨國農業公司、投機商和那些補貼糧食出口的富有國家(如美國)開放自己的國內市場和出讓土地。貧窮國家肥沃的土地上，生產的不再是滿足當地市場需要的糧食，轉而為西方的大超市生產各種熱帶經濟作物，如咖啡、鳳梨等。今天，發展中國家中約有70%的國家全靠進口滿足糧食需求。據估計，全世界有8.45 億人口正在挨餓，80%是小農。

因此，可以說，農業政策已經與滿足人們的糧食需求這個最基本的目標脫軌了。饑餓降臨，人們絕望。聯合國糧食規劃署估計近來糧價的上漲將導致另外1億人挨餓。多年來世界銀行和世界貨幣基金組織一再向各國宣稱，一個開放的市場能為其糧食生產和分配提供最有效的體系。然而今天，世界上的窮國卻被迫跟那些正洋洋自得的投機者和貿易商一起競標糧食。為避開股市衰退和信貸緊縮，對沖基金和其他來源的熱錢投入數十億美元到糧食市場，導致糧食庫存對窮人來說根本遙不可及。據統計，投資基金控制了全球最大的小麥貿易市場的 50-60%；投入在買空賣空的大米和小麥期貨市場的投機資金，從2000年的50億美元增加到2007年的1750億美元。

如今，形勢十分嚴峻。幾十年前的海地還是一個自給自足的稻米生產國，但是為了取得外國貸款，特別是1994年IMF的一攬子融資條件被迫開放市場。美國廉價大米 (因為政府補貼和行賄)趁機大量傾銷海地，使得當地生產的大米徹底被淘汰。去年迄今，國際米價上漲了50%，海地的普通老百姓根本吃不起，因而不斷有人上街遊行，甚至冒著生命危險乘船偷渡到美國。在西非從毛利塔尼亞到布吉納法索，糧食抗議層出不窮。這些地方的稻米生產被結構調整方案和糧食援助傾銷所摧毀，致使當地居民任由國際市場擺佈。在亞洲，即便就在去年，世界銀行還不斷向菲律賓人民保證，國際市場可以完全供應他們的糧食需求，沒有必要自行生產稻米。然而現在，菲律賓政府卻幾近絕望：供應國內的糧食補貼幾乎耗盡，而國際市場糧價的飆升使之無能力進口足夠的糧食。

在糧食危機中大撈一筆
誰從全球糧食體系受益或受害，已經真相現大白。糧食生產的基本要素是土壤，但是糧食工業體系卻染上化學肥料的毒癮，為了維持糧食收益不惜侵蝕土壤，它必須吸食越來越多的毒品才能活下去。在當前糧食供應緊縮的情況下，那些控制著全球化肥市場的少數財團正可以予取予求。例如，控制著全球大部分磷肥和鉀肥供應的美國“嘉吉集團”（Cargill’s Mosaic Corporation），從2006年以來每年獲益成倍數成長。世界上最大的鉀肥生產商，加拿大的 Potash Cirporation 每年盈餘超過10億美元。儘管化肥的獲利可觀，但對於像嘉吉這樣的跨國財團而言，這只能算是副業，它更大的利潤源於全球的農產品貿易，並與其他大公司聯合壟斷了主要市場。2008年4月14日，嘉吉宣佈 2008年第一季的農產品貿易盈利比去年同期增長86%。事實上，所有的糧食貿易商去年得盈餘都創歷史新高。邦奇集團2007年第四季的盈餘增加了 2.45億美元，比去年同期增長77%。世界第二大糧食貿易公司ADM，2007年的上報盈餘達22億美元，增長了65%。亞洲主要的糧食貿易公司泰國的卜蜂公司2008年的收入是2007年的237%。

圖 : 全球幾家最大的穀物商利潤增長情況表：

公司	2007年盈餘 (百萬/美元)	比2006 年增長的百分比 (%)
嘉吉 (Cargill 美國)	2,340	36%
ADM (美國)	2,200	67%
康尼格拉集團 (美國)	764	30%
邦奇 (美國)	738	49%
來寶集團 (新加坡)	258	92%
丸紅株式會社 (日本)	90	43%

此外，本身也是糧食貿易商的大型糧食加工集團也有不少進帳。雀巢公司2007年全球的銷售和營利漲了7%，聯合利華 (Unilever) 也差不多。糧食貿易公司也沒有虧待零售商，英國的特速購（Tesco）超市自2007年盈利創紀錄地上漲了12.3%，其他主要零售商如法國的家樂福和美國的沃爾瑪的糧食銷售也是他們利潤攀升的主要因素。就連控制了1/3的墨西哥糧食銷售的沃爾瑪墨西哥分公司，在2008年第一季的利潤也增長了11%，與此同時墨西哥人卻因為吃不起玉米餅而上街抗議。

全球糧食鏈中幾乎所有的玩家都在糧食危機中大撈一筆。種子和農化公司的表現也很亮眼，世界上最大的種子公司孟山都（Monsanto)2007年總利潤上升了44%；第二大公司杜邦2007年經營種子盈利上漲了19%；作為最大的農藥生產廠和第三大種子公司的先正達 (Syngenta）2008年第一季盈餘增長了28%。這種創紀錄的利潤與這些跨國公司正在炮製的、非一次性暴利的供需失衡無關，相反的，這些中間商人從全球化的糧食體系獲利，反映出一種極端的權力。糧食貿易公司正通過它的全球營運，密切的介入支配當前糧食體系的貿易規範，並緊緊地掌控著市場以及更為複雜的金融體系，藉以將糧食危機轉化為賺錢機會。不管多麼昂貴，人們總得吃飯。

反思糧食政策是當務之急
當前搖搖欲墜的全球金融體系對糧食市場的危害更大，從2007年開始的美國次貸危機讓情況變得更加嚴峻。正如人們所理解的，全球金融體系其實是「國王的新衣」，世界經濟所背負的債務沒人還的起。當前的事實是，不管是IMF，還是世界銀行的當權者，或者是強權國家的領袖，都沒有人願意為瀕臨破產的金融體系採取必要的措施。

糧食危機的核心也在於此：被意識形態所操弄的政治菁英強迫各國開放自由市場，其結果卻讓部分鉅賈、投資和投機商從中牟取暴利。大部分國家已經喪失了自給自足的能力，這種失能通常還伴隨著腐蝕國家和貿易體系的貪污。這一切在在都表明了，新自由主義已經失去它的合法性，今天的糧食危機正是幾十年來貿易自由化的直接結果，我們必須與之全面決裂。現在，必須採取的行動是降低糧價，並把它送到需要的人手裡。同時，我們也要大幅度的改變農業政策，使全球的小農都能擁有土地，並以此為生。農業政策應該更多的關注、支持和保護農民、漁人和其他生產糧食來養家糊口、供應在地市場和城市人口的人，而非只關注和支持商品市場和鉅賈的利益。換言之，我們需要糧食自主：由小農和漁民們自己定義和推動的糧食主權。

全世界反對當前糧食體系的遊行和運動經常是被國家機器、跨國公司與服務其利益的主流媒體暴力地壓制與扭曲。還有一線生機，情況是可以扭轉的。各國政府應該傾聽農民組織對解決當前糧食危機的具體建議，已經有些國家的農業政策開始朝糧食自主轉向，其他國家也開始質疑推動自由貿易的根據。站在全球糧食政策金字塔頂端的新自由主義鷹派已經信用破產，現在由草根民眾發起的糧食主權和土地改革運動是該取代他們的時候，只有這樣才能使人們脫離水深火熱的危機。

(資料來源："Making a killing from hunger -- We need to overturn food policy, now!" , GRAIN http://www.grain.org/articles/?id=39 )

糧農組織：全球10億人面臨饑荒

BBC中文網
2009年5月6日

聯合國糧食及農業組織總幹事迪烏夫警告說，由於糧食生產不足，今年世界各地將會有10億人面臨饑荒。

迪烏夫與景和組織在法國巴黎舉行了會談，討論金融與經濟危機對發展中國家造成的衝擊。

他在會上呼籲增加農業投資、並且援助農民的收入。

一年前，舉世擔心的是糧食價格高漲，一些貧窮國家還出現了因為糧食價格居高不下所引發的騷亂。

如今雖然在國際市場上糧食價格似乎已經下跌，但是迪烏夫說，發展中國家的糧食價格卻好像沒有任何變化。

迪烏夫表示，現在全球飢餓人口的數目超過了以往。

迪烏夫說，在2009年，由於金融和經濟危機，所以聯合國糧農組織預計會增加1億4百萬的飢餓人口，這使得全球飢餓人口達到了10億人。

他還表示，從來沒有見過世界上會有這麼多的飢餓人口。

糧農組織認為發展中國家的糧食價格沒有下跌的原因是市場價格僵化。該組織呼籲大量增加農業方面的外援。

迪烏夫希望如此能夠增加在運送道路、儲存設施等其他基本建設方面的投資。

另外，經濟專家也還沒有完成金融與經濟危機對發展中國家的衝擊的評估。

發展中國家的貿易和信用交易自然是受到重創，但是最令人擔心的是出外工作的工人寄回家的款項大為減少。

糧農組織說，這個因為勞力市場需求減少而引發出來的問題，不但影響了工資收入的水平、也影響了購買糧食的能力。

How the Swine Flu Exploded

Al Giordano
The Narco News Bulletin
April 29, 2009

US and Mexico authorities claim that neither knew about the “swine flu” outbreak until April 24. But after hundreds of residents of a town in Veracruz, Mexico, came down with its symptoms, the story had already hit the Mexican national press by April 5. The daily La Jornada reported:

Clouds of flies emanate from the rusty lagoons where the Carroll Ranches business tosses the fecal wastes of its pig farms, and the open-air contamination is already generating an epidemic of respiratory infections in the town of La Gloria, in the Perote Valley, according to Town Administrator Bertha Crisóstomo López.

The town has 3,000 inhabitants, hundreds of whom reported severe flu symptoms in March.

CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta, reporting from Mexico, has identified a La Gloria child who contracted the first case of identified “swine flu” in February as “patient zero,” five-year-old Edgar Hernández, now a survivor of the disease.

By April 15 – nine days before Mexican federal authorities of the regime of President Felipe Calderon acknowledged any problem at all – the local daily newspaper, Marcha, reported that a company called Carroll Ranches was “the cause of the epidemic.”

La Jornada columnist Julio Hernández López connects the corporate dots to explain how the Virginia-based Smithfield Farms came to Mexico: In 1985, Smithfield Farms received what was, at the time, the most expensive fine in history – $12.6 million – for violating the US Clean Water Act at its pig facilities near the Pagan River in Smithfield, Virginia, a tributary that flows into the Chesapeake Bay. The company, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dumped hog waste into the river.

It was a case in which US environmental law succeeded in forcing a polluter, Smithfield Farms, to construct a sewage treatment plant at that facility after decades of using the river as a mega-toilet. But “free trade” opened a path for Smithfield Farms to simply move its harmful practices next door into Mexico so that it could evade the tougher US regulators.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into effect on January 1, 1994. That very same year Smithfield Farms opened the “Carroll Ranches” in the Mexican state of Veracruz through a new subsidiary corporation, “Agroindustrias de México.”

Unlike what law enforcers forced upon Smithfield Farms in the US, the new Mexican facility – processing 800,000 pigs into bacon and other products per year – does not have a sewage treatment plant.

According to Rolling Stone magazine, Smithfield slaughters an estimated 27 million hogs a year to produce more than six billion pounds of packaged pork products. (The Veracruz facility thus constitutes about three percent of its total production.)

Reporter Jeff Teitz reported in 2006 on the conditions in Smithfield’s US facilities (remember: what you are about to read describes conditions that are more sanitary and regulated than those in Mexico):

Smithfield’s pigs live by the hundreds or thousands in warehouse-like barns, in rows of wall-to-wall pens. Sows are artificially inseminated and fed and delivered of their piglets in cages so small they cannot turn around. Forty fully grown 250-pound male hogs often occupy a pen the size of a tiny apartment. They trample each other to death. There is no sunlight, straw, fresh air or earth. The floors are slatted to allow excrement to fall into a catchment pit under the pens, but many things besides excrement can wind up in the pits: afterbirths, piglets accidentally crushed by their mothers, old batteries, broken bottles of insecticide, antibiotic syringes, stillborn pigs—anything small enough to fit through the foot-wide pipes that drain the pits. The pipes remain closed until enough sewage accumulates in the pits to create good expulsion pressure; then the pipes are opened and everything bursts out into a large holding pond.

The temperature inside hog houses is often hotter than ninety degrees. The air, saturated almost to the point of precipitation with gases from shit and chemicals, can be lethal to the pigs. Enormous exhaust fans run twenty-four hours a day. The ventilation systems function like the ventilators of terminal patients: If they break down for any length of time, pigs start dying.

Consider what happens when such forms of massive pork production move to unregulated territory where Mexican authorities allow wealthy interests to do business without adequate oversight, abusing workers and the environment both. And there it is: The violence wrought by NAFTA in clear and understandable human terms.

The so-called “swine flu” exploded because an environmental disaster simply moved (and with it, took jobs from US workers) to Mexico where environmental and worker safety laws, if they exist, are not enforced against powerful multinational corporations.

False mental constructs of borders – the kind that cause US and Mexican citizens alike to imagine a flu strain like this one invading their nations from other lands – are taking a long overdue hit by the current “swine flu” media frenzy. In this case, US-Mexico trade policy created a time bomb in Veracruz that has already murdered more than 150 Mexican citizens, and at least one child in the US, by creating a gigantic Petri dish in the form pig farms to generate bacon and ham for international sale.

None of that indicates that this flu strain was born in Mexico, but, rather, that the North American Free Trade Agreement created the optimal conditions for the flu to gestate and become, at minimum, epidemic in La Gloria and, now, Mexico City, and threatens to become international pandemic.

Welcome to the aftermath of “free trade.” Authorities now want you to grab a hospital facemask and avoid human contact until the outbreak hopefully blows over. And if you start to feel dizzy, or a flush with fever, or other symptoms begin to molest you or your children, remember this: The real name of this infirmity is “The NAFTA Flu,” the first of what may well emerge as many new illnesses to emerge internationally as the direct result of “free trade” agreements that allow companies like Smithfield Farms to escape health, safety and environmental laws.

痙攣中的世界貿易

John Ross
《國際金融危機下的中國經濟》網誌
（citifc.blogspot.com）
2009年3月24日

我在本博客之前的一些文章裡曾經分析過目前的金融市場包括股價已經歷經了17個月的持續下滑，其下滑的速度之快可以和史上記載的最嚴重的一次金融危機（發生在1929年後）相提並論。從圖表一看，雖然從3月9日－11日的交易日裡華爾街的股價有所上升，但這不能打破整個下降的趨勢。到目前的股價的小幅上升只是使其下降率向自2007年10月開始的下降趨勢平均線靠攏。可以看到2007年10月之後的數周內道瓊斯工業指數的下降率都高於平均下降水平。

圖表一
從圖表二可以看到，自2007年10月開始的道瓊斯工業指數下降率已經接近1929年的下降速度，並且其下降速度已經遠遠超過20世紀以來除1929年外的其他幾次主要的下跌期。

圖表二

就像本人在這個月初的一篇文章裡所指出的那樣，如果考慮經濟下滑和生產性經濟之間的關係，主要的工業經濟國家數據都顯示折合年率的2008年最後三個月出口下降率事實上已經超過了1929年。
經濟合作與發展組織（OECD）發佈了截至到2008年世界貿易的最新統計數據。從其中一些國家最近幾個月的數據來看可以斷定這種急速下降的趨勢呈現一種普遍的態勢。


我們用三個指標來計算和衡量目前出口快速下滑的狀況：2008年12月份同比下降率、自去年每個國家或地區相較其最高峰與2008年12月的出口率之間的變化值以及折合年率的最後三個月出口下降率。

為了能跟美國歷史上出現過同等規模出口下降的情況進行比較，我們列舉了以下出口下降率，1929-30年的22.5%、1930-1931年的32.7%、1932-1933年的4%，之後部分出口開始得以恢復。據資料記載美國出口下降最快的時期是20世紀30年代的大蕭條時期, 1930-31年的出口下降率為32.7%，到1933年美國的出口下跌了66.2%，已經低於其1929年的水平。

如表格一所示，我們先把OECD區域看作是一個整體，再單獨把歐洲分離出來進行比較。首先我們看到整個OECD區域的出口自2008年4月的最高峰以來出現了大概30%的下降。折合年率到截至去年12月的最後三個月出口下降率達到了驚人的64%。

另外其他主要的G7經濟體的下降相對較緩些，自2008年6月最高峰以來出現26.9%的下滑，折合年率到去年最後三個月出口下降率也達到了57.8%。

在歐洲範圍內，其折合年率截至到去年12月的最後三個月出口下降率達到了50.4%, 而如果把一些東歐國家也計算進去的話，OECD歐洲區域的年下降率為67.0%.

由此可見，在貿易領域和相關的金融市場，目前的下降速度完全可以和30年代初爆發的大蕭條時期的衰退相提並論。兩者之間的差別並不是他們下跌的速度有所不同，而是其下跌持續期。1929年後的出口下降持續了4年，而目前所發生的出口下滑才發生了一年。

表一

讓我們再來看看每個國家的具體情況。表2顯示了經濟合作發展組織內最大七個國家-G7在2008年12月的出口情況，可以看到出口水平從去年最高水平下降了大約25%，而折合年率截至去年12月的最後三個月出口下降率都超過了50%。

總之，世界貿易正以30年代大衰退的下降速度在快速下滑，這種貿易急劇下滑不僅發生在小國家甚至已經完全影響到了世界大國。

表二

表三顯示了非G7的經濟合作發展組織內其他歐洲國家的出口下降率。可以看到表內的兩個較小經濟體國家-盧森堡和愛爾蘭的跌幅要明顯小於其他國家。其他國家的出口率與去年最高水平相比下降了至少25%，折合年率的出口下降率超過50%。

其中西班牙折合年率截至到08年12月的最後三個月出口下降率更是達到令人難以置信的99%，這或許可能是統計上有點失真。但是瑞典、波蘭、挪威的出口下降也同樣的嚴重，分別是79.1%、82.8%、83.1%。這樣的下降率表明至少在短期內的出口不只是在下降而是瀕臨崩潰。

表三

讓我們轉而來看看非歐洲經濟體國家的情況，如果不考慮其中兩個小的經濟體國家-新西蘭和冰島。如圖四所示，中國2008年最後三個月折合年率的出口下降率為53.3%，這看起來比其他國家要稍緩和一些。墨西哥和韓國的同比出口下降率大概在30%左右.南非和土耳其已經與其頂峰水平相比下降了40％左右。其他幾個國家如韓國、巴西、印尼、南美和土耳其的折合年率的出口下降率分別是70.7%、72.4%、78.2%、82.1%、90.1%，可以看到這樣的出口下降率是災難性的。

表四

表五所示，OECD關於今年1月的出口統計數據依然顯示這樣大幅下降的趨勢正在延續。其主要的區別是1月的實際出口下滑相比與2008年下降率顯得更加糟糕。

2009年1月出口數據跟各自的出口最高月數據相比，表內顯示五個國家的出口下降變化率分別是瑞士（29.8%）、南非（41.1%）、瑞典（41.4%）、挪威（46.3%）、土耳其（47.5%）。沒有任何的跡象表明目前這種出口快速下滑的趨勢將有所改善。

表五

總結上面的數據，在列出的三十四個國家裡有十四個國家的年出口下降跌幅超過70％，另外20個國家的下降率也超過了60％。有關去年最後三個月的出口下降率的公開報告顯示日本的下降率為51.9%,中國為53％，美國為54％，這跟其他多數國家大幅下降的出口情況相比確實要緩和些。

然而如此糟糕的年出口下降率說明世界貿易已經遭受了嚴重的打擊。去年最後三個月的數據顯示目前的情況已經相當嚴重並且這樣快速的下降顯然已經成為一種趨勢。同樣令人擔憂的是有七個國家的出口率與去年最高峰水平相比下降超過了40％，另外十九個國家超過了30％。

這裡有必要指出當今的世界貿易在世界經濟中扮演了極其重要的角色，其重要性已經遠遠超過了它在1929年的那次金融危機中所處的地位。現在美國的出口占美國GDP的12％，而其在1929年只佔7％。而這個比例在大多數國家可能更高。即使在其他同等的條件下，單憑如此快速的持續貿易下降率已經足夠說明現在的情況比1929年更加嚴重。

這中從金融業向生產性經濟轉移的機制在上述的下降趨勢中表露無疑。就像先前提到的那樣，目前金融市場的衰落程度幾乎與1929年的金融危機相同，而金融市場跟生產性經濟之間衰退並不完全一致。生產性經濟雖然也遭受嚴重的創傷，但其受下降的程度並不完全與金融市場相當。但是這不能表明目前下降到底部的金融市場會復甦。同時，雖然生產性經濟的下降趨勢和統計數據落後於金融市場，但其也將向金融市場的下降趨勢靠攏。

所有主要經濟體的最近數據顯示世界出口下降達到令人咋舌的程度。爆發在金融市場的危機正通過貿易萎縮開始影響到生產性經濟。現在可以這麼說在世界兩大經濟領域－金融市場和貿易中，兩者的下降率都已經完全可以和1929年那次金融危機的規模相比。我們必須要仔細的研究這種從國際經濟危機到國內經濟危機轉移的機制有多強大。同時，這種危機持續的時間也是至關重要的。到目前為止最嚴重的一次危機發生在1929年，這不僅是因為其快速的下降速度還在於它持續時間之長。20世紀30年代美國貿易和GDP持續下滑了長達四年，而目前金融市場的下滑已經持續了十七個月，貿易下滑還不足一年，GDP的下滑大概是六個月。

相當充分的數據表明世界貿易在2008年最後三個月內正處於痙攣的狀態。和金融市場的急劇下滑一樣，世界貿易也正快速的下滑，這使我們斷定目前的世界貿易的急劇下跌標誌著這場危機的嚴重程度不僅遠甚於二戰以後的幾次衰退，也幾乎趕上了1929年的那次金融危機。

表格註釋－2008出口最高峰月

1. 2008年1月
2. 2008年3月
3. 2008年4月
4. 2008年5月
5. 2008年6月
6. 2008年7月
7. 2008年8月
8. 2008年9月

WTO預測全球貿易額今年下滑9%

張環宇
《財經》
2009年3月24日

3月23日發表的WTO一份官方報告作出了如上預測。WTO總幹事帕斯卡爾·拉米（Pascal Lamy）稱，「貿易是提振世界經濟的強有力工具。」「G20峰會上，領導人們將獲得一個特別的機會，聯合起來並立刻行動，以遏制貿易保護主義進一步蔓延。」


按WTO的觀點，2009年貿易收縮主要受到四方面因素的影響：

——世界主要經濟體的貿易需求同時大幅放緩。

——貿易鏈的加長，意味著傳統意義上的產出國和消費國的簡單貿易變得更加複雜，中間品需要經過很多國家的再加工。這種複雜化，增加了貿易衰退所帶來的「放大效應」。

——貿易融資渠道的喪失。

——貿易保護主義的升溫，任何貿易保護行為都可能延長衰退時間，並令復甦更遲到來。

拉米說，「在過去30年中，貿易始終是世界經濟增長的重要支柱之一。貿易經常會超過產出的增長速度，特別是很多產品的生產過程遍佈世界各地，這可能會產生龐大的乘數效應。正因為此，一旦需求放緩，貿易可能會下降得更加明顯。其中，貿易融資渠道的堵塞是貿易大幅下降的重要原因，對於發展中國家來說，更是如此。」

WTO的預測並非無的放矢。按照目前已經公佈的數據，很多出口導向型經濟體在1月和2月均出現出口大幅下行，出口下降的影響也反饋至更多相關部門，工業產出低迷，採購經理人判斷悲觀，固定資產投資銳減。

3月10日，德國聯邦統計局公佈數據顯示，由於金融危機和經濟衰退導致全球貿易不斷萎縮，德國1月出口總額為666億歐元，較2008年同期大幅下降20.7%。該數據創下16年來的最大降幅，同時也是德國出口自2008年11月以來連續第三個月下滑。在世界另一出口大國日本，出口也遭遇兩位數巨跌。這令經濟學家紛紛調低對這兩個國家GDP增幅預期。

WTO報告除對2009年的整體貿易狀況作出了較為悲觀的預測外，同時指出，金融市場震盪和貿易保護主義抬頭，會延長貿易狀況恢復的時間。如果家庭消費支出不能恢復到正常水平之上，經濟恢復的步伐也將放慢。當然，在眾多不利因素對面，也存在著一些可能導致貿易狀況更快恢復的因素：信貸市場運行得到恢復，金融改革成功實現，銀行融資渠道重新暢通。這些因素均將加速經濟復甦的進程。■